Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a narrow band of model forecasts from MetService and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, projecting Wellington's March 22 high temperature between 17-19°C amid a cool southerly airflow. Leading odds favor 18°C and 19°C equally at 26%, with 17°C close at 23%, driven by recent 12Z model runs showing daytime maxima peaking under partly cloudy skies and moderate winds, tempered by coastal cooling from the Tasman Sea. Historical March data for Wellington averages 19.5°C highs with a standard deviation of 2.5°C, but this week's lingering low-pressure trough introduces downside risk, differentiating lower outcomes like 16-17°C from upside spikes above 20°C, which require unexpected clearing. Traders eye evening updates for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Wellington am 22. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Wellington am 22. März?
19°C 27%
18°C 25%
17°C 23%
20°C 12%
12°C oder niedriger
4%
13°C
4%
14°C
3%
15°C
4%
16°C
9%
17°C
23%
18°C
25%
19°C
27%
20°C
12%
21°C
9%
22°C oder höher
5%
19°C 27%
18°C 25%
17°C 23%
20°C 12%
12°C oder niedriger
4%
13°C
4%
14°C
3%
15°C
4%
16°C
9%
17°C
23%
18°C
25%
19°C
27%
20°C
12%
21°C
9%
22°C oder höher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a narrow band of model forecasts from MetService and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, projecting Wellington's March 22 high temperature between 17-19°C amid a cool southerly airflow. Leading odds favor 18°C and 19°C equally at 26%, with 17°C close at 23%, driven by recent 12Z model runs showing daytime maxima peaking under partly cloudy skies and moderate winds, tempered by coastal cooling from the Tasman Sea. Historical March data for Wellington averages 19.5°C highs with a standard deviation of 2.5°C, but this week's lingering low-pressure trough introduces downside risk, differentiating lower outcomes like 16-17°C from upside spikes above 20°C, which require unexpected clearing. Traders eye evening updates for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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