Latest NOAA and ECMWF model ensembles project Miami's March 22 high temperature in the 80-83°F range, driving trader consensus toward those bins at over 70% combined implied probability, amid a building subtropical ridge fostering sunny skies and light southerly winds that advect warm, moist Gulf air. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow could cap peaks at 78-81°F via coastal cooling, while delayed breezes under high pressure favor 82-85°F—compounded by urban heat island effects amplifying downtown readings by 1-2°F over official KMIA airport observations. Recent 00Z model runs show slight upward trend from yesterday's cooler bias, but lingering marine stratus adds 10-20% downside risk for 76-79°F, aligning with historical March 22 averages near 80°F. Traders eye afternoon NWS updates for resolution clarity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Miami on March 22?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 22?
80-81°F 33%
78-79°F 31%
82-83°F 24%
76-77°F 19%
69°F or below
3%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
23%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
24%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
6%
88°F or higher
8%
80-81°F 33%
78-79°F 31%
82-83°F 24%
76-77°F 19%
69°F or below
3%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
23%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
24%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
6%
88°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA and ECMWF model ensembles project Miami's March 22 high temperature in the 80-83°F range, driving trader consensus toward those bins at over 70% combined implied probability, amid a building subtropical ridge fostering sunny skies and light southerly winds that advect warm, moist Gulf air. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow could cap peaks at 78-81°F via coastal cooling, while delayed breezes under high pressure favor 82-85°F—compounded by urban heat island effects amplifying downtown readings by 1-2°F over official KMIA airport observations. Recent 00Z model runs show slight upward trend from yesterday's cooler bias, but lingering marine stratus adds 10-20% downside risk for 76-79°F, aligning with historical March 22 averages near 80°F. Traders eye afternoon NWS updates for resolution clarity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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