Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System and ECMWF models pinpoint Miami's March 21 high temperature in the 78-81°F range, fueling trader bets on those bins at over 70% combined implied probability, with 78-79°F edging ahead due to consistent sea breeze moderation. Historical data shows March 21 averages around 79°F at Miami International Airport, but current upper-level ridging promotes warm southerly flow, offset by diurnal cumulus clouds potentially capping peaks 2-3°F lower. Model spread of ±2°F across runs reflects uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and afternoon convection timing, closely differentiating the top outcomes while sidelining extremes below 76°F or above 85°F amid stable subtropical conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Miami on March 21?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 21?
78-79°F 31%
80-81°F 24%
76-77°F 23%
74-75°F 10%
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
31%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
9%
86°F or higher
8%
78-79°F 31%
80-81°F 24%
76-77°F 23%
74-75°F 10%
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
6%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
31%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
9%
86°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System and ECMWF models pinpoint Miami's March 21 high temperature in the 78-81°F range, fueling trader bets on those bins at over 70% combined implied probability, with 78-79°F edging ahead due to consistent sea breeze moderation. Historical data shows March 21 averages around 79°F at Miami International Airport, but current upper-level ridging promotes warm southerly flow, offset by diurnal cumulus clouds potentially capping peaks 2-3°F lower. Model spread of ±2°F across runs reflects uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and afternoon convection timing, closely differentiating the top outcomes while sidelining extremes below 76°F or above 85°F amid stable subtropical conditions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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