Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 28°C or below in Lucknow on March 21, with a 99.8% implied probability, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts predicting a maximum around 27-28°C amid lingering effects of recent western disturbances that have advected cooler continental air and increased cloud cover. Global models like GFS and ECMWF corroborate this, showing suppressed daytime heating due to overcast skies and northerly winds, contrasting with Lucknow's typical late-March average max of 30-32°C. This positioning reflects verified short-range guidance from official agencies. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt clearing of clouds and southerly winds shifting to hot, dry advection from the plains, though ensemble model spread indicates only a 0.2% outlier risk for 29°C+.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 21?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 21?
28°C or below 99.8%
30°C <1%
29°C <1%
31°C <1%
$142,397 Vol.
$142,397 Vol.
28°C or below
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
28°C or below 99.8%
30°C <1%
29°C <1%
31°C <1%
$142,397 Vol.
$142,397 Vol.
28°C or below
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 28°C or below in Lucknow on March 21, with a 99.8% implied probability, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts predicting a maximum around 27-28°C amid lingering effects of recent western disturbances that have advected cooler continental air and increased cloud cover. Global models like GFS and ECMWF corroborate this, showing suppressed daytime heating due to overcast skies and northerly winds, contrasting with Lucknow's typical late-March average max of 30-32°C. This positioning reflects verified short-range guidance from official agencies. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt clearing of clouds and southerly winds shifting to hot, dry advection from the plains, though ensemble model spread indicates only a 0.2% outlier risk for 29°C+.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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