Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 82-85°F highs for Houston on March 25, propelled by the National Weather Service's latest point forecast of 83°F under sunny skies and a building upper-level ridge fostering above-normal warmth. Ensemble models show tight clustering—GFS at 84°F, ECMWF at 82°F, GEM near 85°F—against March's climatological average of 76°F, with minimal cloud interference and light winds minimizing cooling. Differentiation hinges on slight model divergences in boundary layer mixing and near-surface advection, yielding a 2-3°F spread; historical precedents confirm such anomalies resolve within forecast ensembles, tempering outliers like 90°F+ at low odds amid low volatility signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Houston on March 25?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 25?
82-83°F 19%
84-85°F 19%
78-79°F 14%
76-77°F 11%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
10%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
9%
94°F or higher
2%
82-83°F 19%
84-85°F 19%
78-79°F 14%
76-77°F 11%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
10%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
9%
94°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 21, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 82-85°F highs for Houston on March 25, propelled by the National Weather Service's latest point forecast of 83°F under sunny skies and a building upper-level ridge fostering above-normal warmth. Ensemble models show tight clustering—GFS at 84°F, ECMWF at 82°F, GEM near 85°F—against March's climatological average of 76°F, with minimal cloud interference and light winds minimizing cooling. Differentiation hinges on slight model divergences in boundary layer mixing and near-surface advection, yielding a 2-3°F spread; historical precedents confirm such anomalies resolve within forecast ensembles, tempering outliers like 90°F+ at low odds amid low volatility signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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