Trader sentiment hinges on the latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center and ECMWF ensemble forecasts, which converge on a NYC high temperature of 55-56°F for March 21, driven by mild southerly winds and partial sunshine boosting afternoon heating at Central Park's official station. The narrow 46% implied probability for 54-55°F over 44.5% for 56-57°F stems from GFS model runs showing slightly cooler peaks around 4-6 PM due to increasing high clouds, tempering peak solar insolation, while historical March 21 climatology (mean 52°F, standard deviation ~8°F) underscores the tight race amid low wind shear uncertainty. Lower bins fade as no cold snaps loom in guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in NYC on March 21?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 21?
54-55°F 58%
56-57°F 36%
58-59°F 7%
52-53°F 1.9%
$142,381 Vol.
$142,381 Vol.
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
2%
54-55°F
58%
56-57°F
36%
58-59°F
7%
60°F or higher
1%
54-55°F 58%
56-57°F 36%
58-59°F 7%
52-53°F 1.9%
$142,381 Vol.
$142,381 Vol.
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
2%
54-55°F
58%
56-57°F
36%
58-59°F
7%
60°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Einspruchsfrist
Endgültig
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment hinges on the latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center and ECMWF ensemble forecasts, which converge on a NYC high temperature of 55-56°F for March 21, driven by mild southerly winds and partial sunshine boosting afternoon heating at Central Park's official station. The narrow 46% implied probability for 54-55°F over 44.5% for 56-57°F stems from GFS model runs showing slightly cooler peaks around 4-6 PM due to increasing high clouds, tempering peak solar insolation, while historical March 21 climatology (mean 52°F, standard deviation ~8°F) underscores the tight race amid low wind shear uncertainty. Lower bins fade as no cold snaps loom in guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen