Trader consensus favors a NYC high of 46-47°F (33.5% implied probability) on March 24, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means clustering in the mid-40s amid a cool post-frontal airmass with northerly winds and partial cloud cover. Key variables include upper-level trough persistence suppressing heights, coastal marine influence capping warmth, and light shortwave risks that could trim 2-3°F; divergence in model runs fuels spread to 44-45°F (21.5%) and 48-49°F (20.5%). Extremes like 56°F+ (1.6%) or 37°F- (1.3%) face low odds without major warm advection or cold surge, against March's typical 52°F average.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in NYC am 24. März?
Höchste Temperatur in NYC am 24. März?
46-47°F 34%
44-45°F 22%
48-49°F 21%
50-51°F 8%
37°F oder darunter
1%
38-39°F
5%
40-41°F
3%
42-43°F
3%
44-45°F
22%
46-47°F
26%
48-49°F
29%
50-51°F
8%
52-53°F
7%
54-55°F
8%
56°F oder höher
2%
46-47°F 34%
44-45°F 22%
48-49°F 21%
50-51°F 8%
37°F oder darunter
1%
38-39°F
5%
40-41°F
3%
42-43°F
3%
44-45°F
22%
46-47°F
26%
48-49°F
29%
50-51°F
8%
52-53°F
7%
54-55°F
8%
56°F oder höher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a NYC high of 46-47°F (33.5% implied probability) on March 24, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecast and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means clustering in the mid-40s amid a cool post-frontal airmass with northerly winds and partial cloud cover. Key variables include upper-level trough persistence suppressing heights, coastal marine influence capping warmth, and light shortwave risks that could trim 2-3°F; divergence in model runs fuels spread to 44-45°F (21.5%) and 48-49°F (20.5%). Extremes like 56°F+ (1.6%) or 37°F- (1.3%) face low odds without major warm advection or cold surge, against March's typical 52°F average.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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