Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors NYC's highest temperature on March 22 clustering in the 56-61°F range, driven primarily by the latest National Weather Service forecast indicating a daytime high near 58°F amid a cool, mostly cloudy pattern. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF show tight spreads around 57-59°F, reflecting persistent northwest flow aloft capping warmth, with minimal diurnal heating due to overcast skies and light winds. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on boundary layer mixing—ECMWF slightly warmer at 60°F versus GFS's 56°F—against a historical March 22 average of 52°F, while low odds for extremes stem from stable baroclinic zone suppressing outliers. Upcoming 18Z model runs could shift odds if ridging amplifies.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in NYC am 22. März?
Höchste Temperatur in NYC am 22. März?
58-59°F 25%
56-57°F 23%
60-61°F 19%
62-63°F 14%
$142,229 Vol.
$142,229 Vol.
53°F oder darunter
3%
54-55°F
10%
56-57°F
23%
58-59°F
25%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
10%
66–67°F
3%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72°F oder höher
<1%
58-59°F 25%
56-57°F 23%
60-61°F 19%
62-63°F 14%
$142,229 Vol.
$142,229 Vol.
53°F oder darunter
3%
54-55°F
10%
56-57°F
23%
58-59°F
25%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
10%
66–67°F
3%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72°F oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors NYC's highest temperature on March 22 clustering in the 56-61°F range, driven primarily by the latest National Weather Service forecast indicating a daytime high near 58°F amid a cool, mostly cloudy pattern. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF show tight spreads around 57-59°F, reflecting persistent northwest flow aloft capping warmth, with minimal diurnal heating due to overcast skies and light winds. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on boundary layer mixing—ECMWF slightly warmer at 60°F versus GFS's 56°F—against a historical March 22 average of 52°F, while low odds for extremes stem from stable baroclinic zone suppressing outliers. Upcoming 18Z model runs could shift odds if ridging amplifies.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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