Trader sentiment on Chengdu's highest temperature March 25 clusters tightly around 18-21°C, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting daytime highs near 19-20°C amid mild spring conditions. Historical March maxima average 17-18°C at the Chengdu Shuangliu station, but recent southerly flows and above-normal soil temperatures from lingering winter warmth boost odds for 19°C (22%) and 20°C (21%), edging out cooler 18°C (17.5%). Differentiators include model spread on afternoon convective clouds potentially capping peaks at 18-19°C versus clearer skies pushing 20-21°C, with low 24°C+ probability (17%) reflecting seasonal caps. China Meteorological Administration updates today could shift implied probabilities as diurnal heating clarifies.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 25?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 25?
19°C 23%
20°C 22%
14°C or below 20%
18°C 18%
14°C or below
20%
15°C
16%
16°C
16%
17°C
16%
18°C
18%
19°C
23%
20°C
22%
21°C
18%
22°C
15%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
17%
19°C 23%
20°C 22%
14°C or below 20%
18°C 18%
14°C or below
20%
15°C
16%
16°C
16%
17°C
16%
18°C
18%
19°C
23%
20°C
22%
21°C
18%
22°C
15%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 21, 2026, 6:28 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Chengdu's highest temperature March 25 clusters tightly around 18-21°C, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting daytime highs near 19-20°C amid mild spring conditions. Historical March maxima average 17-18°C at the Chengdu Shuangliu station, but recent southerly flows and above-normal soil temperatures from lingering winter warmth boost odds for 19°C (22%) and 20°C (21%), edging out cooler 18°C (17.5%). Differentiators include model spread on afternoon convective clouds potentially capping peaks at 18-19°C versus clearer skies pushing 20-21°C, with low 24°C+ probability (17%) reflecting seasonal caps. China Meteorological Administration updates today could shift implied probabilities as diurnal heating clarifies.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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