Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive the fragmented trader sentiment, with mild southerly winds favoring highs around 16-17°C (20-19.5% implied odds) over cooler 14°C (19.5%) or warmer 21°C+ (27%), amid Shanghai's variable March climatology averaging 13-15°C peaks. Differentiating factors include urban heat island amplification versus potential afternoon cloudiness from lingering frontal systems, as tracked by China Meteorological Administration data; historical precedents show 2-3°C spreads common due to diurnal timing and Pudong station measurements. Upcoming hourly updates from official gauges will sharpen resolution, with low pressure risks capping extremes below 20°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 22?
16°C 26%
17°C 21%
14°C 20%
15°C 19%
11°C or below
4%
12°C
8%
13°C
9%
14°C
20%
15°C
19%
16°C
26%
17°C
21%
18°C
18%
19°C
16%
20°C
14%
21°C or higher
12%
16°C 26%
17°C 21%
14°C 20%
15°C 19%
11°C or below
4%
12°C
8%
13°C
9%
14°C
20%
15°C
19%
16°C
26%
17°C
21%
18°C
18%
19°C
16%
20°C
14%
21°C or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive the fragmented trader sentiment, with mild southerly winds favoring highs around 16-17°C (20-19.5% implied odds) over cooler 14°C (19.5%) or warmer 21°C+ (27%), amid Shanghai's variable March climatology averaging 13-15°C peaks. Differentiating factors include urban heat island amplification versus potential afternoon cloudiness from lingering frontal systems, as tracked by China Meteorological Administration data; historical precedents show 2-3°C spreads common due to diurnal timing and Pudong station measurements. Upcoming hourly updates from official gauges will sharpen resolution, with low pressure risks capping extremes below 20°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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