Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Milan high of 13°C at 35% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a tight cluster around 12-14°C for March 22, amid a weak high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Recent model runs indicate slight warming from earlier cooler outlooks, with mean predictions at 12.8°C, but uncertainty persists from variable cloud cover potentially capping insolation and urban heat island effects at Milan's Linate station. Historical March 22 averages hover near 13°C, differentiating outcomes: fuller sun favors 14°C (21.5%), while increased stratiform clouds tilt toward 12°C (27.5%). Upcoming 12Z model updates could shift odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Mailand am 22. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Mailand am 22. März?
13°C 36%
12°C 28%
14°C 22%
11°C 10.4%
$38,470 Vol.
$38,470 Vol.
8°C oder weniger
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
10%
12°C
28%
13°C
36%
14°C
22%
15°C
5%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C oder höher
<1%
13°C 36%
12°C 28%
14°C 22%
11°C 10.4%
$38,470 Vol.
$38,470 Vol.
8°C oder weniger
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
10%
12°C
28%
13°C
36%
14°C
22%
15°C
5%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Milan high of 13°C at 35% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a tight cluster around 12-14°C for March 22, amid a weak high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Recent model runs indicate slight warming from earlier cooler outlooks, with mean predictions at 12.8°C, but uncertainty persists from variable cloud cover potentially capping insolation and urban heat island effects at Milan's Linate station. Historical March 22 averages hover near 13°C, differentiating outcomes: fuller sun favors 14°C (21.5%), while increased stratiform clouds tilt toward 12°C (27.5%). Upcoming 12Z model updates could shift odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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