Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a high of 52-53°F (32.5% implied probability) for New York City on March 25, closely trailed by 50-51°F (29.5%), reflecting tight model spreads amid late-winter variability. NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre (ECMWF) ensembles project peaks near 52°F, up slightly from earlier cooler runs due to a weakening upper-level trough allowing modest ridging and downslope flow off the Appalachians. Differentiating factors include boundary-layer stability—favoring 54-55°F (25.5%) if mixing enhances—versus lingering low clouds from Hudson Valley moisture trapping heat below 50°F. Historical March 25 norms hover at 51°F, with NWS point forecasts centering on 52°F ahead of any evening cold-frontal risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in NYC on March 25?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 25?
52-53°F 33%
50-51°F 30%
54-55°F 25%
48-49°F 13%
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
9%
46-47°F
11%
48-49°F
13%
50-51°F
30%
52-53°F
31%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
10%
60°F or higher
10%
52-53°F 33%
50-51°F 30%
54-55°F 25%
48-49°F 13%
41°F or below
1%
42-43°F
1%
44-45°F
9%
46-47°F
11%
48-49°F
13%
50-51°F
30%
52-53°F
31%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
11%
58-59°F
10%
60°F or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a high of 52-53°F (32.5% implied probability) for New York City on March 25, closely trailed by 50-51°F (29.5%), reflecting tight model spreads amid late-winter variability. NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre (ECMWF) ensembles project peaks near 52°F, up slightly from earlier cooler runs due to a weakening upper-level trough allowing modest ridging and downslope flow off the Appalachians. Differentiating factors include boundary-layer stability—favoring 54-55°F (25.5%) if mixing enhances—versus lingering low clouds from Hudson Valley moisture trapping heat below 50°F. Historical March 25 norms hover at 51°F, with NWS point forecasts centering on 52°F ahead of any evening cold-frontal risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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