Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Wellington high of 19°C at 24% implied probability, driven by MetService's latest forecast models projecting 18-20°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge over New Zealand. Ensemble predictions from ECMWF and GFS diverge slightly due to variable southerly winds moderating temperatures after recent cooler outflows, with historical March maxima averaging 20°C but rarely exceeding 22°C under similar synoptic patterns. Recent NIWA data confirms baseline soil moisture and sea surface temperatures supporting this range, differentiating leaders: 19°C edges out via refined short-range guidance, while 17°C or lower odds fade as cloud cover thins. Key watch: Tonight's 00Z model runs could shift odds if northerlies strengthen.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Wellington on March 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 25?
19°C 24%
21°C 23%
18°C 22%
20°C 17%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
9%
16°C
13%
17°C
15%
18°C
22%
19°C
24%
20°C
22%
21°C
23%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
9%
19°C 24%
21°C 23%
18°C 22%
20°C 17%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
9%
16°C
13%
17°C
15%
18°C
22%
19°C
24%
20°C
22%
21°C
23%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Wellington high of 19°C at 24% implied probability, driven by MetService's latest forecast models projecting 18-20°C amid a weak high-pressure ridge over New Zealand. Ensemble predictions from ECMWF and GFS diverge slightly due to variable southerly winds moderating temperatures after recent cooler outflows, with historical March maxima averaging 20°C but rarely exceeding 22°C under similar synoptic patterns. Recent NIWA data confirms baseline soil moisture and sea surface temperatures supporting this range, differentiating leaders: 19°C edges out via refined short-range guidance, while 17°C or lower odds fade as cloud cover thins. Key watch: Tonight's 00Z model runs could shift odds if northerlies strengthen.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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