Trader consensus tilts toward 90-91°F (26.5% implied probability) as Dallas's highest temperature on March 25, propelled by the latest NOAA ensemble forecasts and ECMWF model runs converging on 88-91°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering anomalous spring warmth. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary layer mixing and afternoon insolation: fuller solar heating under lighter winds and minimal cloud cover could elevate peaks to 94-95°F (21%), while emerging cumulus fields or convective outflows—signaled by recent GFS perturbations—might cap highs at 88-89°F (21%). National Weather Service guidance holds steady near 89°F, with low odds for extremes below 82°F or above 97°F reflecting historical March baselines around 65°F but overridden by this high-pressure dominance. Traders eye 00z updates for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Dallas on March 25?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 25?
90-91°F 26%
94-95°F 21%
88-89°F 21%
86-87°F 15%
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
21%
90-91°F
26%
92-93°F
12%
94-95°F
21%
96-97°F
6%
98°F or higher
1%
90-91°F 26%
94-95°F 21%
88-89°F 21%
86-87°F 15%
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
3%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
21%
90-91°F
26%
92-93°F
12%
94-95°F
21%
96-97°F
6%
98°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tilts toward 90-91°F (26.5% implied probability) as Dallas's highest temperature on March 25, propelled by the latest NOAA ensemble forecasts and ECMWF model runs converging on 88-91°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering anomalous spring warmth. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary layer mixing and afternoon insolation: fuller solar heating under lighter winds and minimal cloud cover could elevate peaks to 94-95°F (21%), while emerging cumulus fields or convective outflows—signaled by recent GFS perturbations—might cap highs at 88-89°F (21%). National Weather Service guidance holds steady near 89°F, with low odds for extremes below 82°F or above 97°F reflecting historical March baselines around 65°F but overridden by this high-pressure dominance. Traders eye 00z updates for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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