Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Taipei high of 27°C at 34% implied probability, driven by the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast indicating afternoon peaks near 27-28°C under a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds and fostering adiabatic warming. Differentiating the tight race with 28°C (24.5%) and 26°C (19.5%) are ensemble model divergences: ECMWF leans slightly warmer with stronger subsidence, while GFS shows minor sea-breeze moderation potentially capping at 26°C amid urban heat island amplification. March norms hover at 24°C, but recent warm anomalies and low wind shear tilt odds upward, with key resolution hinging on 2-4 PM insolation before any evening cooldown.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Taipei on March 22?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 22?
27°C 35%
28°C 23%
26°C 20%
25°C 11%
$28,719 Vol.
$28,719 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
2%
25°C
11%
26°C
20%
27°C
35%
28°C
23%
29°C or higher
9%
27°C 35%
28°C 23%
26°C 20%
25°C 11%
$28,719 Vol.
$28,719 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
2%
25°C
11%
26°C
20%
27°C
35%
28°C
23%
29°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
This market will resolve to the degree indicated in its title (e.g., if a market's title indicates it will resolve to "Yes" if 21°C is the highest temperature on a given day, all temperatures within the range 21.0-21.9°C [inclusive] will qualify).
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Taipei high of 27°C at 34% implied probability, driven by the Central Weather Administration's latest forecast indicating afternoon peaks near 27-28°C under a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds and fostering adiabatic warming. Differentiating the tight race with 28°C (24.5%) and 26°C (19.5%) are ensemble model divergences: ECMWF leans slightly warmer with stronger subsidence, while GFS shows minor sea-breeze moderation potentially capping at 26°C amid urban heat island amplification. March norms hover at 24°C, but recent warm anomalies and low wind shear tilt odds upward, with key resolution hinging on 2-4 PM insolation before any evening cooldown.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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