Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Chicago high of 56-57°F at 26.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 62-63°F (18.5%) and 58-59°F (17.5%), reflecting tight model spread from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Primary drivers include a weakening high-pressure ridge over the Midwest allowing southerly winds to advect mild air masses, with 850mb temperatures around +5°C supporting mid-50s peaks, per latest 12z runs. Differentiation hinges on frontal timing: a stalled low-pressure trough risks capping highs below 60°F if clouds persist, versus brief ridging spikes to low-60s. Historical March 25 averages 48°F, but El Niño residuals boost mild-outlier odds; watch 18z updates for resolution shifts amid 4-6°F forecast uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 25. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Chicago am 25. März?
56-57°F 27%
58-59°F 18%
62-63°F 16%
64-65°F 15%
$11,387 Vol.
$11,387 Vol.
49°F oder darunter
4%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
11%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
18%
60-61°F
13%
62-63°F
16%
64-65°F
15%
66-67°F
6%
68°F oder höher
5%
56-57°F 27%
58-59°F 18%
62-63°F 16%
64-65°F 15%
$11,387 Vol.
$11,387 Vol.
49°F oder darunter
4%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
11%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
18%
60-61°F
13%
62-63°F
16%
64-65°F
15%
66-67°F
6%
68°F oder höher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Chicago high of 56-57°F at 26.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 62-63°F (18.5%) and 58-59°F (17.5%), reflecting tight model spread from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Primary drivers include a weakening high-pressure ridge over the Midwest allowing southerly winds to advect mild air masses, with 850mb temperatures around +5°C supporting mid-50s peaks, per latest 12z runs. Differentiation hinges on frontal timing: a stalled low-pressure trough risks capping highs below 60°F if clouds persist, versus brief ridging spikes to low-60s. Historical March 25 averages 48°F, but El Niño residuals boost mild-outlier odds; watch 18z updates for resolution shifts amid 4-6°F forecast uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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