Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from NOAA drive the 46% implied probability for Chicago's March 24 high reaching 56°F or higher, with traders pricing in a mild above-normal day amid southerly winds and ridging in the jet stream pattern. Supporting this, recent GFS and European model updates show peak temperatures clustering in the 54-57°F range, up from cooler outlooks earlier in the week due to a retreating cold front. Lower bins like 52-55°F (49% combined) reflect model spread and typical spring variability, while sub-50°F odds remain slim given persistent warm advection; monitor afternoon updates from Chicago's NWS office for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 24. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Chicago am 24. März?
56°F oder höher 43%
52-53°F 26%
54-55°F 23%
50-51°F 9%
37°F oder darunter
1%
38-39°F
1%
40-41°F
1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
2%
46-47°F
2%
48-49°F
3%
50-51°F
9%
52-53°F
26%
54-55°F
23%
56°F oder höher
43%
56°F oder höher 43%
52-53°F 26%
54-55°F 23%
50-51°F 9%
37°F oder darunter
1%
38-39°F
1%
40-41°F
1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
2%
46-47°F
2%
48-49°F
3%
50-51°F
9%
52-53°F
26%
54-55°F
23%
56°F oder höher
43%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from NOAA drive the 46% implied probability for Chicago's March 24 high reaching 56°F or higher, with traders pricing in a mild above-normal day amid southerly winds and ridging in the jet stream pattern. Supporting this, recent GFS and European model updates show peak temperatures clustering in the 54-57°F range, up from cooler outlooks earlier in the week due to a retreating cold front. Lower bins like 52-55°F (49% combined) reflect model spread and typical spring variability, while sub-50°F odds remain slim given persistent warm advection; monitor afternoon updates from Chicago's NWS office for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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