Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a high of exactly 21°C in Chengdu on March 21, driven by converged forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime maximums of 20-21°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds, aligning with recent observations of mild spring conditions averaging 18-20°C highs. Official Chinese Meteorological Administration data reinforces this, showing soil and air temperatures stabilizing post-winter without heat anomalies. Historical March precedents in Chengdu rarely exceed 22°C before late month, supporting the positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen southerly warm surge boosting temps 1-2°C or microclimate variations at monitoring stations, though ensemble model uncertainty remains low at under 1°C spread.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 21?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 21?
21°C 100.0%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
$49,909 Vol.
$49,909 Vol.
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
21°C 100.0%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
$49,909 Vol.
$49,909 Vol.
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a high of exactly 21°C in Chengdu on March 21, driven by converged forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting daytime maximums of 20-21°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds, aligning with recent observations of mild spring conditions averaging 18-20°C highs. Official Chinese Meteorological Administration data reinforces this, showing soil and air temperatures stabilizing post-winter without heat anomalies. Historical March precedents in Chengdu rarely exceed 22°C before late month, supporting the positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen southerly warm surge boosting temps 1-2°C or microclimate variations at monitoring stations, though ensemble model uncertainty remains low at under 1°C spread.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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