Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability on a 25°C high for Shenzhen on March 21, driven by high-resolution short-range forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging tightly around this mark amid persistent mild subtropical high-pressure conditions. Official data from the China Meteorological Administration shows recent daily highs stabilizing at 23-25°C with low humidity and light winds, aligning with March climatology where averages hover near 24°C but rarely exceed 28°C absent heat advection. This positioning reflects minimal ensemble spread—under 1°C—indicating near-certainty. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen southerly surge or urban heat island amplification pushing readings to 26°C+, though current soundings show no such signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Shenzhen am 21. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Shenzhen am 21. März?
25°C 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C oder höher <1%
$193,362 Vol.
$193,362 Vol.
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C oder höher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C oder höher <1%
$193,362 Vol.
$193,362 Vol.
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Einspruchsfrist
Endgültig
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus has locked in a 100% implied probability on a 25°C high for Shenzhen on March 21, driven by high-resolution short-range forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converging tightly around this mark amid persistent mild subtropical high-pressure conditions. Official data from the China Meteorological Administration shows recent daily highs stabilizing at 23-25°C with low humidity and light winds, aligning with March climatology where averages hover near 24°C but rarely exceed 28°C absent heat advection. This positioning reflects minimal ensemble spread—under 1°C—indicating near-certainty. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen southerly surge or urban heat island amplification pushing readings to 26°C+, though current soundings show no such signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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