Consensus weather models, including ECMWF and GFS, pinpoint a daytime high of 26°C in Shenzhen on March 22, anchoring trader sentiment with 42% implied probability for that outcome and 32% for 25°C, amid forecasts of light southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Recent observations confirm warming trends, with highs of 25.4°C on March 20 and 26.1°C on March 21 from local stations, consistent with Shenzhen's subtropical monsoon climate where urban heat islands elevate peaks by 1-2°C. Historical late-March averages hover at 25°C, low rain chances per China Meteorological Administration reduce downside risk, though afternoon sea breezes could trim extremes, positioning 27°C (14.5%) as the next viable contender.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 22?
26°C 42%
25°C 33%
27°C 14%
24°C 7.8%
$14,119 Vol.
$14,119 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
8%
25°C
33%
26°C
42%
27°C
14%
28°C
5%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 42%
25°C 33%
27°C 14%
24°C 7.8%
$14,119 Vol.
$14,119 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
8%
25°C
33%
26°C
42%
27°C
14%
28°C
5%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 7:14 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Consensus weather models, including ECMWF and GFS, pinpoint a daytime high of 26°C in Shenzhen on March 22, anchoring trader sentiment with 42% implied probability for that outcome and 32% for 25°C, amid forecasts of light southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Recent observations confirm warming trends, with highs of 25.4°C on March 20 and 26.1°C on March 21 from local stations, consistent with Shenzhen's subtropical monsoon climate where urban heat islands elevate peaks by 1-2°C. Historical late-March averages hover at 25°C, low rain chances per China Meteorological Administration reduce downside risk, though afternoon sea breezes could trim extremes, positioning 27°C (14.5%) as the next viable contender.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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