Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward mid-70s highs for downtown Los Angeles on March 25, with 74-75°F (21.5% implied probability) and 76-77°F (20.5%) leading amid tight clustering, driven by National Weather Service forecasts peaking near 75°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge aloft. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converge on 74-77°F, reflecting reduced onshore flow and thinning marine stratus layer that typically caps coastal temps. Differentiation hinges on ridge amplitude: stronger subsidence could push into 78-85°F bins via adiabatic warming, while persistent low clouds favor 72°F or below; historical March 25 averages hover at 70°F, underscoring above-normal odds from fading El Niño influences. Final 18z model updates may refine these razor-thin margins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 25?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 25?
84-85°F 25%
76-77°F 20%
72-73°F 18%
74-75°F 17%
69°F or below
15%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
14%
88°F or higher
17%
84-85°F 25%
76-77°F 20%
72-73°F 18%
74-75°F 17%
69°F or below
15%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
14%
88°F or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 21, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward mid-70s highs for downtown Los Angeles on March 25, with 74-75°F (21.5% implied probability) and 76-77°F (20.5%) leading amid tight clustering, driven by National Weather Service forecasts peaking near 75°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge aloft. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converge on 74-77°F, reflecting reduced onshore flow and thinning marine stratus layer that typically caps coastal temps. Differentiation hinges on ridge amplitude: stronger subsidence could push into 78-85°F bins via adiabatic warming, while persistent low clouds favor 72°F or below; historical March 25 averages hover at 70°F, underscoring above-normal odds from fading El Niño influences. Final 18z model updates may refine these razor-thin margins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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