Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 63°F or below in Chicago on March 22 (43% implied probability), anchored by the National Weather Service's latest forecast calling for a daytime maximum near 63°F under partly cloudy skies with light winds. Ensemble models from GFS and European Center converge on 62-65°F, reflecting a moderating cold front after earlier mild conditions, with upper-level troughing suppressing highs above 70°F. March's historical volatility—averaging 45°F highs but prone to 10-15°F swings—supports clustered odds around 64-69°F (37% combined), while extreme warmth (82°F+) at 4% aligns with rare +20°F anomalies requiring persistent ridging absent in current analyses. Updated soundings this morning reinforce these mid-60s signals, tempering upside risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
63°F or below 67%
64-65°F 21%
66-67°F 5%
68-69°F 5%
63°F or below
67%
64-65°F
18%
66-67°F
15%
68-69°F
11%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
3%
82°F or higher
3%
63°F or below 67%
64-65°F 21%
66-67°F 5%
68-69°F 5%
63°F or below
67%
64-65°F
18%
66-67°F
15%
68-69°F
11%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
3%
82°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 63°F or below in Chicago on March 22 (43% implied probability), anchored by the National Weather Service's latest forecast calling for a daytime maximum near 63°F under partly cloudy skies with light winds. Ensemble models from GFS and European Center converge on 62-65°F, reflecting a moderating cold front after earlier mild conditions, with upper-level troughing suppressing highs above 70°F. March's historical volatility—averaging 45°F highs but prone to 10-15°F swings—supports clustered odds around 64-69°F (37% combined), while extreme warmth (82°F+) at 4% aligns with rare +20°F anomalies requiring persistent ridging absent in current analyses. Updated soundings this morning reinforce these mid-60s signals, tempering upside risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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