Latest ensemble forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models like ECMWF and GFS peg Buenos Aires' March 22 high temperature near 25°C, fueling trader consensus with 30.5% implied odds there, edging out 24°C (25.5%) and 26°C (19.5%). This tight clustering reflects mild autumnal conditions with partial cloud cover moderating solar heating, following a recent cool front that shaved 1-2°C off earlier 27°C projections. Differentiating factors include model divergences on peak afternoon timing—earlier peaks favor 26°C under clearer skies, while sea breeze influences and lingering humidity boost 24°C odds. Historical March 22 averages (around 25°C) align with current trader-implied probabilities, though diurnal variability adds uncertainty ahead of hourly observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 22?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 22?
25°C 30%
24°C 28%
26°C 21%
23°C 15%
$10,887 Vol.
$10,887 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
7%
23°C
15%
24°C
28%
25°C
30%
26°C
21%
27°C
7%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
1%
25°C 30%
24°C 28%
26°C 21%
23°C 15%
$10,887 Vol.
$10,887 Vol.
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
7%
23°C
15%
24°C
28%
25°C
30%
26°C
21%
27°C
7%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models like ECMWF and GFS peg Buenos Aires' March 22 high temperature near 25°C, fueling trader consensus with 30.5% implied odds there, edging out 24°C (25.5%) and 26°C (19.5%). This tight clustering reflects mild autumnal conditions with partial cloud cover moderating solar heating, following a recent cool front that shaved 1-2°C off earlier 27°C projections. Differentiating factors include model divergences on peak afternoon timing—earlier peaks favor 26°C under clearer skies, while sea breeze influences and lingering humidity boost 24°C odds. Historical March 22 averages (around 25°C) align with current trader-implied probabilities, though diurnal variability adds uncertainty ahead of hourly observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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