Tight clustering of market-implied odds around 4-7°C reflects consensus from Environment Canada and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting Toronto's highest temperature on March 20 at 5-6°C amid cloudy skies and light winds limiting diurnal heating. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with Canadian high-resolution GEM favoring 6°C highs due to weak southerly flow, while cooler GFS variants eye 4°C if lingering Arctic air persists. Historical March 20 averages hover at 5°C, but trader sentiment weighs short-term uncertainty from potential lake-effect moderation off Lake Ontario and frontal timing, differentiating slim edges for 6-7°C over lower outcomes. Upcoming 12Z model updates could shift probabilities further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Toronto am 20. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Toronto am 20. März?
6°C 19%
7°C 19%
4°C 19%
5°C 16%
1°C oder darunter
7%
2°C
12%
3°C
15%
4°C
19%
5°C
16%
6°C
19%
7°C
19%
8°C
5%
9°C
3%
10°C
4%
11°C oder höher
2%
6°C 19%
7°C 19%
4°C 19%
5°C 16%
1°C oder darunter
7%
2°C
12%
3°C
15%
4°C
19%
5°C
16%
6°C
19%
7°C
19%
8°C
5%
9°C
3%
10°C
4%
11°C oder höher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 16, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight clustering of market-implied odds around 4-7°C reflects consensus from Environment Canada and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS, projecting Toronto's highest temperature on March 20 at 5-6°C amid cloudy skies and light winds limiting diurnal heating. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with Canadian high-resolution GEM favoring 6°C highs due to weak southerly flow, while cooler GFS variants eye 4°C if lingering Arctic air persists. Historical March 20 averages hover at 5°C, but trader sentiment weighs short-term uncertainty from potential lake-effect moderation off Lake Ontario and frontal timing, differentiating slim edges for 6-7°C over lower outcomes. Upcoming 12Z model updates could shift probabilities further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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