Trader sentiment for Chicago's March 20 high temperature hinges on a tight split between global weather models, with the GFS ensemble leaning toward 62-63°F (21% implied odds) via cooler boundary layer mixing, while ECMWF projections favor 66-67°F (19.8%) from stronger southerly winds advecting warmer air masses. National Weather Service point forecast calls for 62°F under partly cloudy skies and southwest gusts to 20 mph, but 1-2 standard deviation model spread reflects uncertainty in mid-level trough timing. March climatology averages 46°F highs, making these above-normal outcomes plausible amid persistent mild El Niño influences, with no major fronts differentiating the packs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chicago on March 20?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 20?
62-63°F 21%
66-67°F 17.9%
59°F or below 15%
60-61°F 15%
$68,978 Vol.
$68,978 Vol.
59°F or below
15%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
21%
64-65°F
12%
66-67°F
20%
68-69°F
7%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78°F or higher
1%
62-63°F 21%
66-67°F 17.9%
59°F or below 15%
60-61°F 15%
$68,978 Vol.
$68,978 Vol.
59°F or below
15%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
21%
64-65°F
12%
66-67°F
20%
68-69°F
7%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Chicago's March 20 high temperature hinges on a tight split between global weather models, with the GFS ensemble leaning toward 62-63°F (21% implied odds) via cooler boundary layer mixing, while ECMWF projections favor 66-67°F (19.8%) from stronger southerly winds advecting warmer air masses. National Weather Service point forecast calls for 62°F under partly cloudy skies and southwest gusts to 20 mph, but 1-2 standard deviation model spread reflects uncertainty in mid-level trough timing. March climatology averages 46°F highs, making these above-normal outcomes plausible amid persistent mild El Niño influences, with no major fronts differentiating the packs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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