Trader sentiment on Austin's March 24 high temperature centers on a tight race among 84-89°F ranges, reflecting the National Weather Service's latest forecast of 86-89°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas that favors above-normal warmth. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF diverge slightly—GFS leaning toward 85°F with diurnally peaking instability, while ECMWF hints at 90°F under clearer skies—driving the 26.5-30.5% implied probabilities. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon cumulus clouds capping highs below 88°F versus drier conditions pushing toward 92°F, with low soil moisture from recent rains amplifying heat potential; historical March norms around 76°F underscore the anomaly, but 12z model updates tomorrow could shift odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Austin on March 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
88-89°F 35%
86-87°F 29%
84-85°F 27%
92-93°F 27%
79°F or below
3%
80-81°F
22%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
31%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
21%
96-97°F
21%
98°F or higher
14%
88-89°F 35%
86-87°F 29%
84-85°F 27%
92-93°F 27%
79°F or below
3%
80-81°F
22%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
31%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
21%
96-97°F
21%
98°F or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Austin's March 24 high temperature centers on a tight race among 84-89°F ranges, reflecting the National Weather Service's latest forecast of 86-89°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas that favors above-normal warmth. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF diverge slightly—GFS leaning toward 85°F with diurnally peaking instability, while ECMWF hints at 90°F under clearer skies—driving the 26.5-30.5% implied probabilities. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon cumulus clouds capping highs below 88°F versus drier conditions pushing toward 92°F, with low soil moisture from recent rains amplifying heat potential; historical March norms around 76°F underscore the anomaly, but 12z model updates tomorrow could shift odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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