Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward an 11°C high in Ankara on March 22 at 33%, edging out 12°C at 30.5%, as ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converge on 10-12°C amid persistent northerly cold advection and partial cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Key differentiators include boundary layer stability—limiting vertical mixing for cooler 10-11°C outcomes—and potential clearer skies boosting solar insolation to nudge 12-13°C, per latest 00Z runs. March climatology averages 12°C highs, but this season's below-normal anomalies from lingering La Niña patterns heighten uncertainty; MGM hourly updates expected midday will likely resolve the tight race.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
11°C 37%
12°C 30%
10°C 26%
9°C 5.3%
$155,496 Vol.
$155,496 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
5%
10°C
26%
11°C
37%
12°C
30%
13°C
3%
14°C
2%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
11°C 37%
12°C 30%
10°C 26%
9°C 5.3%
$155,496 Vol.
$155,496 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
5%
10°C
26%
11°C
37%
12°C
30%
13°C
3%
14°C
2%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward an 11°C high in Ankara on March 22 at 33%, edging out 12°C at 30.5%, as ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converge on 10-12°C amid persistent northerly cold advection and partial cloud cover suppressing daytime heating. Key differentiators include boundary layer stability—limiting vertical mixing for cooler 10-11°C outcomes—and potential clearer skies boosting solar insolation to nudge 12-13°C, per latest 00Z runs. March climatology averages 12°C highs, but this season's below-normal anomalies from lingering La Niña patterns heighten uncertainty; MGM hourly updates expected midday will likely resolve the tight race.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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