Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS forecast a high of 11°C in Ankara on March 23, anchoring trader sentiment with 36% implied probability on that outcome, closely trailed by 12°C at 24.5% and 10°C at 22.5%. This clustering reflects consensus on mild continental spring conditions, with highs tempered by persistent northerly airflow and weak high-pressure influence over central Anatolia. Recent Ankara observations through early March average 1-2°C below seasonal norms of 13°C, supporting subdued projections amid low-confidence signals for warming. Traders eye 12Z model updates for potential shifts, as divergence in boundary layer forecasts could nudge odds toward 12°C if southerly moisture increases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 23?
11°C 36%
12°C 25%
10°C 24%
9°C 7%
$42,136 Vol.
$42,136 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
7%
10°C
24%
11°C
36%
12°C
25%
13°C
4%
14°C or higher
4%
11°C 36%
12°C 25%
10°C 24%
9°C 7%
$42,136 Vol.
$42,136 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
7%
10°C
24%
11°C
36%
12°C
25%
13°C
4%
14°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from ECMWF and GFS forecast a high of 11°C in Ankara on March 23, anchoring trader sentiment with 36% implied probability on that outcome, closely trailed by 12°C at 24.5% and 10°C at 22.5%. This clustering reflects consensus on mild continental spring conditions, with highs tempered by persistent northerly airflow and weak high-pressure influence over central Anatolia. Recent Ankara observations through early March average 1-2°C below seasonal norms of 13°C, supporting subdued projections amid low-confidence signals for warming. Traders eye 12Z model updates for potential shifts, as divergence in boundary layer forecasts could nudge odds toward 12°C if southerly moisture increases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen