The razor-thin odds between 14°C (26.5%) and 13°C (24.5%) stem from Korea Meteorological Administration ensembles and global models like ECMWF and GFS clustering peak Seoul highs at 13-14°C on March 23, driven by a high-pressure ridge fostering mild advection over the peninsula. Key differentiators include ECMWF's cooler tilt from lingering northerly flow versus GFS warmer projections amid jet stream waviness, with urban heat island amplification and low cloud cover potentially boosting peaks by 1-2°C. Historical March 23 averages hover at 12°C, but recent warming trends and post-La Niña patterns elevate baselines; traders await 12Z updates for volatility in 15°C+ tails.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Seoul am 23. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Seoul am 23. März?
14°C 31%
13°C 25%
15°C 16%
16 °C oder höher 11.9%
$30,481 Vol.
$30,481 Vol.
6°C oder niedriger
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
11%
13°C
25%
14°C
31%
15°C
16%
16 °C oder höher
12%
14°C 31%
13°C 25%
15°C 16%
16 °C oder höher 11.9%
$30,481 Vol.
$30,481 Vol.
6°C oder niedriger
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
11%
13°C
25%
14°C
31%
15°C
16%
16 °C oder höher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The razor-thin odds between 14°C (26.5%) and 13°C (24.5%) stem from Korea Meteorological Administration ensembles and global models like ECMWF and GFS clustering peak Seoul highs at 13-14°C on March 23, driven by a high-pressure ridge fostering mild advection over the peninsula. Key differentiators include ECMWF's cooler tilt from lingering northerly flow versus GFS warmer projections amid jet stream waviness, with urban heat island amplification and low cloud cover potentially boosting peaks by 1-2°C. Historical March 23 averages hover at 12°C, but recent warming trends and post-La Niña patterns elevate baselines; traders await 12Z updates for volatility in 15°C+ tails.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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