Trader sentiment for San Francisco's March 24 peak temperature hinges on the latest NOAA and ECMWF model ensembles projecting highs near 64-68°F amid persistent coastal marine layer influence, yet optimism clusters around 70-71°F (30.5% implied probability) due to potential afternoon fog burn-off under weak high-pressure ridging. The close contest with 74°F+ (28.5%) reflects trader bets on offshore winds enhancing adiabatic warming and clearer skies, contrasting cooler 66-67°F odds (18.5%) tied to overcast persistence, as seen in recent GFS runs diverging by 4-6°F. March climatology averages 62°F highs, with diurnal ranges limited by Pacific advection, amplifying uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and solar insolation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in San Francisco on March 24?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 24?
72-73°F 41%
70-71°F 31%
64-65°F 14%
62-63°F 14%
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
11%
70-71°F
31%
72-73°F
23%
74°F or higher
28%
72-73°F 41%
70-71°F 31%
64-65°F 14%
62-63°F 14%
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
11%
70-71°F
31%
72-73°F
23%
74°F or higher
28%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 6:08 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for San Francisco's March 24 peak temperature hinges on the latest NOAA and ECMWF model ensembles projecting highs near 64-68°F amid persistent coastal marine layer influence, yet optimism clusters around 70-71°F (30.5% implied probability) due to potential afternoon fog burn-off under weak high-pressure ridging. The close contest with 74°F+ (28.5%) reflects trader bets on offshore winds enhancing adiabatic warming and clearer skies, contrasting cooler 66-67°F odds (18.5%) tied to overcast persistence, as seen in recent GFS runs diverging by 4-6°F. March climatology averages 62°F highs, with diurnal ranges limited by Pacific advection, amplifying uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and solar insolation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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