Trader consensus favors a high of 13°C or higher in Warsaw on March 24 at 57.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing mild southerly flows ushering highs of 12-14°C amid a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Historical March averages hover around 8-10°C, but recent model runs updated within the last 24 hours have trended warmer due to persistent warm air advection, boosting odds for above-average temps while downplaying sub-10°C outcomes below 10% combined. Polish IMGW observations confirm current anomalies, with daytime maxima diverging by 1-2°C across models; traders eye afternoon peak hours for resolution amid low precipitation risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 24?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 24?
13°C or higher 66%
12°C 22%
11°C 4.4%
10°C 2.6%
$12,140 Vol.
$12,140 Vol.
3°C or below
1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
3%
11°C
4%
12°C
15%
13°C or higher
58%
13°C or higher 66%
12°C 22%
11°C 4.4%
10°C 2.6%
$12,140 Vol.
$12,140 Vol.
3°C or below
1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
3%
11°C
4%
12°C
15%
13°C or higher
58%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 6:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a high of 13°C or higher in Warsaw on March 24 at 57.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing mild southerly flows ushering highs of 12-14°C amid a high-pressure ridge over Central Europe. Historical March averages hover around 8-10°C, but recent model runs updated within the last 24 hours have trended warmer due to persistent warm air advection, boosting odds for above-average temps while downplaying sub-10°C outcomes below 10% combined. Polish IMGW observations confirm current anomalies, with daytime maxima diverging by 1-2°C across models; traders eye afternoon peak hours for resolution amid low precipitation risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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