Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pinpoint a daytime high of 13-15°C in Warsaw on March 22, propelled by a persistent upper-level ridge ushering mild southerly airflow over Central Europe, fueling trader optimism for 14°C at 41.5% implied probability. Recent surface observations confirm above-climatological warmth—Warsaw's March average high is around 9°C—with yesterday's temperatures exceeding 12°C and minimal cold advection. Boundary layer instability introduces modest uncertainty, elevating 13°C (27%) and 15°C+ (24.5%) as viable alternatives, while lower outcomes fade amid negligible polar vortex influence. Traders monitor 12Z model updates for final tweaks before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Warschau am 22. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Warschau am 22. März?
14°C 42%
15°C oder mehr 26%
13°C 19%
12°C 5.1%
$32,780 Vol.
$32,780 Vol.
5°C oder darunter
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
5%
13°C
19%
14°C
42%
15°C oder mehr
26%
14°C 42%
15°C oder mehr 26%
13°C 19%
12°C 5.1%
$32,780 Vol.
$32,780 Vol.
5°C oder darunter
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
5%
13°C
19%
14°C
42%
15°C oder mehr
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts pinpoint a daytime high of 13-15°C in Warsaw on March 22, propelled by a persistent upper-level ridge ushering mild southerly airflow over Central Europe, fueling trader optimism for 14°C at 41.5% implied probability. Recent surface observations confirm above-climatological warmth—Warsaw's March average high is around 9°C—with yesterday's temperatures exceeding 12°C and minimal cold advection. Boundary layer instability introduces modest uncertainty, elevating 13°C (27%) and 15°C+ (24.5%) as viable alternatives, while lower outcomes fade amid negligible polar vortex influence. Traders monitor 12Z model updates for final tweaks before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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