Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors mid-80s highs for Houston on March 24, with 84-85°F at 32% and 86-87°F at 27.5%, driven by the latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF showing a strong upper-level ridge building over Texas, promoting subsidence warming and highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Recent 12z model runs have tightened the spread around 84-86°F, differentiating from lower bins like 80-81°F (19.5%) amid lingering Gulf moisture risks that could cap peaks via thin high clouds, while 90°F+ odds remain low (under 20%) due to insufficient 850mb warmth forecasts above +15°C. Uncertainty persists from diurnal mixing variations, with NWS point forecasts eyeing 85°F as the modal outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Houston on March 24?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 24?
84-85°F 32%
82-83°F 27%
86-87°F 17%
90-91°F 15%
75°F or below
8%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
28%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
16%
94°F or higher
8%
84-85°F 32%
82-83°F 27%
86-87°F 17%
90-91°F 15%
75°F or below
8%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
28%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
16%
94°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 6:14 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors mid-80s highs for Houston on March 24, with 84-85°F at 32% and 86-87°F at 27.5%, driven by the latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF showing a strong upper-level ridge building over Texas, promoting subsidence warming and highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Recent 12z model runs have tightened the spread around 84-86°F, differentiating from lower bins like 80-81°F (19.5%) amid lingering Gulf moisture risks that could cap peaks via thin high clouds, while 90°F+ odds remain low (under 20%) due to insufficient 850mb warmth forecasts above +15°C. Uncertainty persists from diurnal mixing variations, with NWS point forecasts eyeing 85°F as the modal outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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