Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and AEMET indicate Madrid's highest temperature on March 24 will likely cluster between 17-19°C, fueling tight trader odds favoring 18°C (26.5%) and 19°C (26.0%). These projections stem from a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia delivering mild southerly flows, with model means around 18°C amid low wind shear. Differentiating factors include variable low-level cloud cover—potentially capping peaks at 17-18°C per conservative GFS runs—or clearer skies boosting to 19°C via enhanced insolation, as hinted in warmer EURO4K outliers. Historical March highs average 16°C, but this anomalously warm setup, corroborated by recent radiosonde data, underscores the slim margin separating top outcomes amid typical late-winter forecast divergence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Madrid on March 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 24?
18°C 30%
19°C 30%
16°C 24%
17°C 18%
13°C or below
2%
14°C
2%
15°C
6%
16°C
24%
17°C
18%
18°C
30%
19°C
30%
20°C
14%
21°C
3%
22°C
6%
23°C or higher
4%
18°C 30%
19°C 30%
16°C 24%
17°C 18%
13°C or below
2%
14°C
2%
15°C
6%
16°C
24%
17°C
18%
18°C
30%
19°C
30%
20°C
14%
21°C
3%
22°C
6%
23°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and AEMET indicate Madrid's highest temperature on March 24 will likely cluster between 17-19°C, fueling tight trader odds favoring 18°C (26.5%) and 19°C (26.0%). These projections stem from a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia delivering mild southerly flows, with model means around 18°C amid low wind shear. Differentiating factors include variable low-level cloud cover—potentially capping peaks at 17-18°C per conservative GFS runs—or clearer skies boosting to 19°C via enhanced insolation, as hinted in warmer EURO4K outliers. Historical March highs average 16°C, but this anomalously warm setup, corroborated by recent radiosonde data, underscores the slim margin separating top outcomes amid typical late-winter forecast divergence.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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