Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather models for Tel Aviv's March 25 high, with the Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF forecasts centering around 18-19°C amid a mild Mediterranean high-pressure ridge. Leading probabilities for 18°C (22.5%) and 17-19°C outcomes stem from GFS and ICON model runs showing daytime peaks moderated by northerly Shamal winds and coastal sea breezes, which cap highs below 20°C in 70% of simulations. Historical late-March averages hover at 19°C, but recent model divergence—driven by stratospheric warming residuals—increases odds for 16-22°C spread, while extremes remain negligible absent sudden southerly flow shifts. Upcoming 00Z model updates could sharpen resolution criteria.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Tel Aviv am 25. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Tel Aviv am 25. März?
18°C 22%
17°C 19%
19°C 19%
20°C 18%
14°C oder niedriger
2%
15°C
11%
16°C
14%
17°C
19%
18°C
22%
19°C
19%
20°C
18%
21°C
16%
22°C
16%
23°C
1%
24°C oder höher
1%
18°C 22%
17°C 19%
19°C 19%
20°C 18%
14°C oder niedriger
2%
15°C
11%
16°C
14%
17°C
19%
18°C
22%
19°C
19%
20°C
18%
21°C
16%
22°C
16%
23°C
1%
24°C oder höher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather models for Tel Aviv's March 25 high, with the Israel Meteorological Service and ECMWF forecasts centering around 18-19°C amid a mild Mediterranean high-pressure ridge. Leading probabilities for 18°C (22.5%) and 17-19°C outcomes stem from GFS and ICON model runs showing daytime peaks moderated by northerly Shamal winds and coastal sea breezes, which cap highs below 20°C in 70% of simulations. Historical late-March averages hover at 19°C, but recent model divergence—driven by stratospheric warming residuals—increases odds for 16-22°C spread, while extremes remain negligible absent sudden southerly flow shifts. Upcoming 00Z model updates could sharpen resolution criteria.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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