Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 27-30°C for São Paulo's highest temperature on March 25, driven by ensemble weather model forecasts from INMET, ECMWF, and GFS converging on a 28°C peak amid persistent subtropical high pressure. Recent INMET updates project a maximum of 29°C with low precipitation risk, while Climatempo aligns at 28°C, moderated by afternoon sea breezes from the Atlantic that cap urban heat island effects. Differentiation among leaders hinges on breeze timing—earlier onset favors 27°C, delays enable 29-30°C—against March historical averages of 27.5-28.5°C under neutral ENSO conditions, underscoring 1-2°C forecast uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 25?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 25?
28°C 27%
27°C 23%
29°C 23%
30°C 23%
24°C oder darunter
2%
25°C
11%
26°C
14%
27°C
23%
28°C
27%
29°C
23%
30°C
23%
31°C
16%
32°C
14%
33°C
12%
34°C or higher
2%
28°C 27%
27°C 23%
29°C 23%
30°C 23%
24°C oder darunter
2%
25°C
11%
26°C
14%
27°C
23%
28°C
27%
29°C
23%
30°C
23%
31°C
16%
32°C
14%
33°C
12%
34°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 21, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 27-30°C for São Paulo's highest temperature on March 25, driven by ensemble weather model forecasts from INMET, ECMWF, and GFS converging on a 28°C peak amid persistent subtropical high pressure. Recent INMET updates project a maximum of 29°C with low precipitation risk, while Climatempo aligns at 28°C, moderated by afternoon sea breezes from the Atlantic that cap urban heat island effects. Differentiation among leaders hinges on breeze timing—earlier onset favors 27°C, delays enable 29-30°C—against March historical averages of 27.5-28.5°C under neutral ENSO conditions, underscoring 1-2°C forecast uncertainty.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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