Trader consensus favors a 19°C high in Wuhan on March 22 at 30.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 20–23°C outcomes, reflecting tight model spread from ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting peaks of 18–22°C under mild anticyclonic conditions. Recent developments, including yesterday's forecast updates from the China Meteorological Administration, highlight subtle differentiation: persistent northerly winds capping daytime heating at 19–20°C, while urban heat island effects and light southerly shifts could push toward 22°C. Historical March 22 averages hover at 17–19°C, with low precipitation odds (under 20%) minimizing cloud-induced cooling; upcoming 12Z model runs may refine these odds as traders weigh diurnal ranges exceeding 10°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 22?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 22?
19°C 46%
22°C 25%
20°C 24%
21°C 20%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
5%
17°C
3%
18°C
6%
19°C
31%
20°C
24%
21°C
20%
22°C
25%
23°C
20%
24°C or higher
18%
19°C 46%
22°C 25%
20°C 24%
21°C 20%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
5%
17°C
3%
18°C
6%
19°C
31%
20°C
24%
21°C
20%
22°C
25%
23°C
20%
24°C or higher
18%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 19°C high in Wuhan on March 22 at 30.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 20–23°C outcomes, reflecting tight model spread from ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting peaks of 18–22°C under mild anticyclonic conditions. Recent developments, including yesterday's forecast updates from the China Meteorological Administration, highlight subtle differentiation: persistent northerly winds capping daytime heating at 19–20°C, while urban heat island effects and light southerly shifts could push toward 22°C. Historical March 22 averages hover at 17–19°C, with low precipitation odds (under 20%) minimizing cloud-induced cooling; upcoming 12Z model runs may refine these odds as traders weigh diurnal ranges exceeding 10°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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