Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 12°C or below in Madrid on March 20, driven by authoritative forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF models predicting persistent low pressure, northerly winds, and cloud cover amid a late-winter cold snap across Iberia. Verified ensemble projections cluster highs at 8–12°C, consistent with recent observations of below-average conditions (Madrid's March climatological mean is ~15°C). This positioning reflects high model agreement, with minimal spread indicating low uncertainty. Realistic challenges include an abrupt high-pressure ridge or foehn-like warming from the Sierra de Guadarrama, though such scenarios carry <5% probability per current guidance from NOAA GFS and UKMO ensembles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 20. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 20. März?
12°C oder weniger 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$36,948 Vol.
$36,948 Vol.
12°C oder weniger
Ja
13°C
Nein
14°C
Nein
15°C
Nein
16°C
Nein
17°C
Nein
18°C
Nein
19°C
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C oder höher
Nein
12°C oder weniger 100.0%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$36,948 Vol.
$36,948 Vol.
12°C oder weniger
Ja
13°C
Nein
14°C
Nein
15°C
Nein
16°C
Nein
17°C
Nein
18°C
Nein
19°C
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C oder höher
Nein
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 2:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a maximum temperature of 12°C or below in Madrid on March 20, driven by authoritative forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF models predicting persistent low pressure, northerly winds, and cloud cover amid a late-winter cold snap across Iberia. Verified ensemble projections cluster highs at 8–12°C, consistent with recent observations of below-average conditions (Madrid's March climatological mean is ~15°C). This positioning reflects high model agreement, with minimal spread indicating low uncertainty. Realistic challenges include an abrupt high-pressure ridge or foehn-like warming from the Sierra de Guadarrama, though such scenarios carry <5% probability per current guidance from NOAA GFS and UKMO ensembles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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