Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a 26°C high in Shenzhen on March 26, with 29% implied probability, driven by ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China Meteorological Administration models projecting peaks in the 25-27°C range amid mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in predicted cloudiness—thicker afternoon clouds could cap temperatures at 24-25°C (26% and 17% odds), while clearer skies and urban heat island effects might push toward 27°C (17% odds). Historical late-March data shows Shenzhen averages 24.5°C highs, but recent warming trends and low precipitation risk (under 10%) support the clustered mid-20s outcomes over extremes. Monitor CMA's 00Z update for shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 26?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 26?
26°C 29%
24°C 26%
25°C 17%
27°C 17%
20°C or below
17%
21°C
17%
22°C
17%
23°C
17%
24°C
26%
25°C
17%
26°C
29%
27°C
17%
28°C
17%
29°C
17%
30°C or higher
17%
26°C 29%
24°C 26%
25°C 17%
27°C 17%
20°C or below
17%
21°C
17%
22°C
17%
23°C
17%
24°C
26%
25°C
17%
26°C
29%
27°C
17%
28°C
17%
29°C
17%
30°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward a 26°C high in Shenzhen on March 26, with 29% implied probability, driven by ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and China Meteorological Administration models projecting peaks in the 25-27°C range amid mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in predicted cloudiness—thicker afternoon clouds could cap temperatures at 24-25°C (26% and 17% odds), while clearer skies and urban heat island effects might push toward 27°C (17% odds). Historical late-March data shows Shenzhen averages 24.5°C highs, but recent warming trends and low precipitation risk (under 10%) support the clustered mid-20s outcomes over extremes. Monitor CMA's 00Z update for shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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