Trader sentiment on Austin's March 26 high temperature splits evenly between cool (81°F or below at 16%) and extreme heat (100°F+ at 16%), driven by stark model divergences in NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Short-range forecasts from the National Weather Service point to a high-pressure ridge amplifying southerly flow and subsidence, potentially pushing highs toward 96-97°F (14%) amid low cloud cover and dry soils enhancing daytime heating. However, lingering uncertainty from a possible weak cold front or increased Gulf moisture could cap temperatures at 84-85°F (14.5%), with historical March volatility—averaging 76°F but with 5% outliers above 95°F—fueling tail risks as traders await 00Z model runs for resolution clarity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Austin on March 26?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 26?
81°F or below 16%
100°F or higher 16%
84-85°F 15%
96-97°F 14%
81°F or below
16%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
15%
86-87°F
9%
88-89°F
9%
90-91°F
9%
92-93°F
9%
94-95°F
9%
96-97°F
14%
98-99°F
11%
100°F or higher
16%
81°F or below 16%
100°F or higher 16%
84-85°F 15%
96-97°F 14%
81°F or below
16%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
15%
86-87°F
9%
88-89°F
9%
90-91°F
9%
92-93°F
9%
94-95°F
9%
96-97°F
14%
98-99°F
11%
100°F or higher
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Austin's March 26 high temperature splits evenly between cool (81°F or below at 16%) and extreme heat (100°F+ at 16%), driven by stark model divergences in NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Short-range forecasts from the National Weather Service point to a high-pressure ridge amplifying southerly flow and subsidence, potentially pushing highs toward 96-97°F (14%) amid low cloud cover and dry soils enhancing daytime heating. However, lingering uncertainty from a possible weak cold front or increased Gulf moisture could cap temperatures at 84-85°F (14.5%), with historical March volatility—averaging 76°F but with 5% outliers above 95°F—fueling tail risks as traders await 00Z model runs for resolution clarity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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