Trader sentiment favors 15°C or below in Madrid on March 26 at 45% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs of 13-16°C under a persistent northerly flow channeling cooler Atlantic air masses. This setup contrasts with Madrid's late-March climatological average high of 17°C, as verified by AEMET historical data, amid a broader European cold anomaly linked to a wavy jet stream pattern. Recent model runs released yesterday reinforce this cooling trend, with low confidence in warmer outliers above 18°C due to stable high-pressure blocking to the west; traders await AEMET's official 48-hour update tomorrow for potential shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 26?
15°C or below 45%
16°C 28%
18°C 16%
17°C 15%
15°C or below
45%
16°C
23%
17°C
15%
18°C
16%
19°C
10%
20°C
9%
21°C
8%
22°C
6%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
3%
15°C or below 45%
16°C 28%
18°C 16%
17°C 15%
15°C or below
45%
16°C
23%
17°C
15%
18°C
16%
19°C
10%
20°C
9%
21°C
8%
22°C
6%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors 15°C or below in Madrid on March 26 at 45% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs of 13-16°C under a persistent northerly flow channeling cooler Atlantic air masses. This setup contrasts with Madrid's late-March climatological average high of 17°C, as verified by AEMET historical data, amid a broader European cold anomaly linked to a wavy jet stream pattern. Recent model runs released yesterday reinforce this cooling trend, with low confidence in warmer outliers above 18°C due to stable high-pressure blocking to the west; traders await AEMET's official 48-hour update tomorrow for potential shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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