Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15°C (40%) and 16°C (30.5%) for Shanghai's March 23 high temperature, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 15-16°C amid southerly winds advecting mild maritime air into the Yangtze River Delta. This differentiates from cooler 14°C odds (14%), as urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai add 1-2°C above rural baselines, while partial cloud cover from weakening high-pressure ridges caps extremes. Historical March 23 maxima average 13.8°C per China Meteorological Administration data, but recent model runs show low spread (σ=1.2°C), with 00Z updates pivotal for final trader positioning amid typical spring diurnal swings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 23?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 23?
15°C 39%
16°C 31%
14°C 14%
17°C 14%
$26,291 Vol.
$26,291 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
14%
15°C
39%
16°C
31%
17°C
14%
18°C
6%
19°C
2%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
15°C 39%
16°C 31%
14°C 14%
17°C 14%
$26,291 Vol.
$26,291 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
14%
15°C
39%
16°C
31%
17°C
14%
18°C
6%
19°C
2%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15°C (40%) and 16°C (30.5%) for Shanghai's March 23 high temperature, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 15-16°C amid southerly winds advecting mild maritime air into the Yangtze River Delta. This differentiates from cooler 14°C odds (14%), as urban heat island effects in densely built Shanghai add 1-2°C above rural baselines, while partial cloud cover from weakening high-pressure ridges caps extremes. Historical March 23 maxima average 13.8°C per China Meteorological Administration data, but recent model runs show low spread (σ=1.2°C), with 00Z updates pivotal for final trader positioning amid typical spring diurnal swings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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