Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 16°C (32.5% implied probability) for Tel Aviv on March 26, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting mild conditions under a lingering upper-level trough over the eastern Mediterranean, which has suppressed recent highs to 14-17°C regionally. Historical late-March averages hover around 19°C, but cooler sea surface temperatures and potential low-pressure influences elevate chances for 15-18°C outcomes (combined ~70%), while extremes like 21°C+ (7%) hinge on unexpected ridging. Key variables include frontal boundary strength, cloud cover modulating solar heating, and diurnal sea breezes; high uncertainty persists with model spreads of 3-5°C, pending fresh Israel Meteorological Service updates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 26?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 26?
16°C 33%
15°C 31%
17°C 31%
19°C 17%
11°C or below
5%
12°C
8%
13°C
9%
14°C
8%
15°C
19%
16°C
33%
17°C
22%
18°C
16%
19°C
13%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
2%
16°C 33%
15°C 31%
17°C 31%
19°C 17%
11°C or below
5%
12°C
8%
13°C
9%
14°C
8%
15°C
19%
16°C
33%
17°C
22%
18°C
16%
19°C
13%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 16°C (32.5% implied probability) for Tel Aviv on March 26, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles projecting mild conditions under a lingering upper-level trough over the eastern Mediterranean, which has suppressed recent highs to 14-17°C regionally. Historical late-March averages hover around 19°C, but cooler sea surface temperatures and potential low-pressure influences elevate chances for 15-18°C outcomes (combined ~70%), while extremes like 21°C+ (7%) hinge on unexpected ridging. Key variables include frontal boundary strength, cloud cover modulating solar heating, and diurnal sea breezes; high uncertainty persists with model spreads of 3-5°C, pending fresh Israel Meteorological Service updates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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