Trader sentiment on Wuhan's highest temperature March 26 remains tightly split, with 11°C or below and 21°C or higher each at 25% implied probability, reflecting model forecast divergence amid spring transitional weather. ECMWF and GFS ensembles from authoritative sources like the China Meteorological Administration project a mean high near 16-18°C, but ensemble spreads exceed 8°C due to uncertainty in a weakening cold front from Mongolia versus southerly moisture influx. Historical March 26 averages hover at 15°C, with recent observations showing diurnal swings influenced by urban heat island effects in Wuhan. Traders eye today's 00Z model runs for resolution catalysts, as small shifts could pivot odds toward mid-teens outcomes like 17°C or 18°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 26?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 26?
17°C 18%
18°C 18%
11°C or below 17%
14°C 17%
11°C or below
17%
12°C
13%
13°C
16%
14°C
17%
15°C
17%
16°C
17%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
16%
20°C
13%
21°C or higher
17%
17°C 18%
18°C 18%
11°C or below 17%
14°C 17%
11°C or below
17%
12°C
13%
13°C
16%
14°C
17%
15°C
17%
16°C
17%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
16%
20°C
13%
21°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Wuhan's highest temperature March 26 remains tightly split, with 11°C or below and 21°C or higher each at 25% implied probability, reflecting model forecast divergence amid spring transitional weather. ECMWF and GFS ensembles from authoritative sources like the China Meteorological Administration project a mean high near 16-18°C, but ensemble spreads exceed 8°C due to uncertainty in a weakening cold front from Mongolia versus southerly moisture influx. Historical March 26 averages hover at 15°C, with recent observations showing diurnal swings influenced by urban heat island effects in Wuhan. Traders eye today's 00Z model runs for resolution catalysts, as small shifts could pivot odds toward mid-teens outcomes like 17°C or 18°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen