Trader sentiment for San Francisco's highest temperature on March 26 remains fragmented, with 74°F or higher edging out at 17% implied probability amid a tight race against 72-73°F (16.5%) and cooler 60-61°F (14.5%), reflecting model ensemble uncertainty from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF runs. Recent 10-day outlook updates show a weak ridge potentially eroding the persistent marine layer—San Francisco's signature cool, foggy influence from Pacific upwelling—allowing brief highs near 75°F under clear skies, while stronger onshore flow favors mid-60s with stratus deck burn-off limited to midday. Historical March data at SFO airport averages 63°F, but El Niño fading into neutral ENSO boosts odds for 70s if geopotential height anomalies align favorably; watch Thursday's 12Z model refresh for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in San Francisco on March 26?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 26?
74°F or higher 17%
72-73°F 17%
60-61°F 14%
58-59°F 12%
55°F or below
11%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
12%
60-61°F
14%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
8%
66-67°F
10%
68-69°F
10%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
17%
74°F or higher
17%
74°F or higher 17%
72-73°F 17%
60-61°F 14%
58-59°F 12%
55°F or below
11%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
12%
60-61°F
14%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
8%
66-67°F
10%
68-69°F
10%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
17%
74°F or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for San Francisco's highest temperature on March 26 remains fragmented, with 74°F or higher edging out at 17% implied probability amid a tight race against 72-73°F (16.5%) and cooler 60-61°F (14.5%), reflecting model ensemble uncertainty from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF runs. Recent 10-day outlook updates show a weak ridge potentially eroding the persistent marine layer—San Francisco's signature cool, foggy influence from Pacific upwelling—allowing brief highs near 75°F under clear skies, while stronger onshore flow favors mid-60s with stratus deck burn-off limited to midday. Historical March data at SFO airport averages 63°F, but El Niño fading into neutral ENSO boosts odds for 70s if geopotential height anomalies align favorably; watch Thursday's 12Z model refresh for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen