Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding lead in the NY-20 House race, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democrats at 93%, driven by the district's Democratic lean—Biden carried it by 12 points in 2020—and Tonko's consistent victories, including 57% in 2022. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with Tonko unopposed in the primary and superior fundraising reinforcing his position against Republican nominee Liz Joyce. The race aligns with historical patterns of high incumbent re-election rates above 90% in safe seats. Potential challenges include a national Republican wave, low Democratic turnout, or unforeseen scandal, though structural advantages make shifts unlikely ahead of the November 5 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
93%
共和党
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding lead in the NY-20 House race, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democrats at 93%, driven by the district's Democratic lean—Biden carried it by 12 points in 2020—and Tonko's consistent victories, including 57% in 2022. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with Tonko unopposed in the primary and superior fundraising reinforcing his position against Republican nominee Liz Joyce. The race aligns with historical patterns of high incumbent re-election rates above 90% in safe seats. Potential challenges include a national Republican wave, low Democratic turnout, or unforeseen scandal, though structural advantages make shifts unlikely ahead of the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding lead in the NY-20 House race, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democrats at 93%, driven by the district's Democratic lean—Biden carried it by 12 points in 2020—and Tonko's consistent victories, including 57% in 2022. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with Tonko unopposed in the primary and superior fundraising reinforcing his position against Republican nominee Liz Joyce. The race aligns with historical patterns of high incumbent re-election rates above 90% in safe seats. Potential challenges include a national Republican wave, low Democratic turnout, or unforeseen scandal, though structural advantages make shifts unlikely ahead of the November 5 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding lead in the NY-20 House race, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democrats at 93%, driven by the district's Democratic lean—Biden carried it by 12 points in 2020—and Tonko's consistent victories, including 57% in 2022. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with Tonko unopposed in the primary and superior fundraising reinforcing his position against Republican nominee Liz Joyce. The race aligns with historical patterns of high incumbent re-election rates above 90% in safe seats. Potential challenges include a national Republican wave, low Democratic turnout, or unforeseen scandal, though structural advantages make shifts unlikely ahead of the November 5 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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