US and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, with over 900 airstrikes targeting Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, air defenses, naval assets, and nuclear sites, severely degrading Tehran's retaliatory capabilities—missile attacks down 90%, drone launches 83%, and dozens of ships sunk. As of April 1, explosions rocked Tehran amid fresh Israeli strikes, while Iran continues limited proxy attacks, tanker strikes, and threats against US bases, keeping the Strait of Hormuz contested. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the next few days as "decisive," with postponed power grid strikes until April 6 amid mixed diplomatic signals, including Iran's president expressing readiness to end hostilities. Trader consensus weighs rapid operational progress against persistent Iranian defiance and escalation risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$303,025 交易量
2026-03-31
March 30
<1%
4月15日
21%
4月30日
56%
5月31日
88%
6月30日
89%
$303,025 交易量
March 30
$25,448 交易量
<1%
4月15日
$24,782 交易量
21%
4月30日
$15,086 交易量
56%
5月31日
$8,678 交易量
88%
6月30日
$6,359 交易量
89%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, with over 900 airstrikes targeting Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, air defenses, naval assets, and nuclear sites, severely degrading Tehran's retaliatory capabilities—missile attacks down 90%, drone launches 83%, and dozens of ships sunk. As of April 1, explosions rocked Tehran amid fresh Israeli strikes, while Iran continues limited proxy attacks, tanker strikes, and threats against US bases, keeping the Strait of Hormuz contested. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the next few days as "decisive," with postponed power grid strikes until April 6 amid mixed diplomatic signals, including Iran's president expressing readiness to end hostilities. Trader consensus weighs rapid operational progress against persistent Iranian defiance and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
交易量
$303,025结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, with over 900 airstrikes targeting Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, air defenses, naval assets, and nuclear sites, severely degrading Tehran's retaliatory capabilities—missile attacks down 90%, drone launches 83%, and dozens of ships sunk. As of April 1, explosions rocked Tehran amid fresh Israeli strikes, while Iran continues limited proxy attacks, tanker strikes, and threats against US bases, keeping the Strait of Hormuz contested. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the next few days as "decisive," with postponed power grid strikes until April 6 amid mixed diplomatic signals, including Iran's president expressing readiness to end hostilities. Trader consensus weighs rapid operational progress against persistent Iranian defiance and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$303,025结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
US and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, with over 900 airstrikes targeting Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, air defenses, naval assets, and nuclear sites, severely degrading Tehran's retaliatory capabilities—missile attacks down 90%, drone launches 83%, and dozens of ships sunk. As of April 1, explosions rocked Tehran amid fresh Israeli strikes, while Iran continues limited proxy attacks, tanker strikes, and threats against US bases, keeping the Strait of Hormuz contested. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the next few days as "decisive," with postponed power grid strikes until April 6 amid mixed diplomatic signals, including Iran's president expressing readiness to end hostilities. Trader consensus weighs rapid operational progress against persistent Iranian defiance and escalation risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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