The US-Israel conflict with Iran, escalating from joint strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, persists amid intense airstrikes and missile exchanges as of April 1. Recent US attacks on Tehran's nuclear facilities signal an "endgame" phase, while Iranian ballistic missiles and Houthi drone barrages targeted Israel and US assets in retaliation. Over 50,000 US troops, including fresh Marine deployments, bolster regional forces amid Pentagon invasion planning, though President Trump has indicated negotiations for de-escalation and a potential ceasefire. Degraded Iranian air defenses and missile stocks limit counterstrikes, but proxy escalations via Hezbollah and Houthis heighten risks, shaping trader consensus on prolonged hostilities versus diplomatic off-ramps ahead of any ground operations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$10,506,893 交易量
2026-06-30
3月31日
<1%
4月15日
16%
4月7日
6%
4月30日
35%
5月15日
47%
6月30日
72%
12月31日
86%
$10,506,893 交易量
3月31日
$4,881,170 交易量
<1%
4月15日
$1,419,974 交易量
16%
4月7日
$567,891 交易量
6%
4月30日
$877,305 交易量
35%
5月15日
$1,402,292 交易量
47%
6月30日
$1,025,381 交易量
72%
12月31日
$345,567 交易量
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel conflict with Iran, escalating from joint strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, persists amid intense airstrikes and missile exchanges as of April 1. Recent US attacks on Tehran's nuclear facilities signal an "endgame" phase, while Iranian ballistic missiles and Houthi drone barrages targeted Israel and US assets in retaliation. Over 50,000 US troops, including fresh Marine deployments, bolster regional forces amid Pentagon invasion planning, though President Trump has indicated negotiations for de-escalation and a potential ceasefire. Degraded Iranian air defenses and missile stocks limit counterstrikes, but proxy escalations via Hezbollah and Houthis heighten risks, shaping trader consensus on prolonged hostilities versus diplomatic off-ramps ahead of any ground operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
市场开放时间： Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$10,506,893结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel conflict with Iran, escalating from joint strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, persists amid intense airstrikes and missile exchanges as of April 1. Recent US attacks on Tehran's nuclear facilities signal an "endgame" phase, while Iranian ballistic missiles and Houthi drone barrages targeted Israel and US assets in retaliation. Over 50,000 US troops, including fresh Marine deployments, bolster regional forces amid Pentagon invasion planning, though President Trump has indicated negotiations for de-escalation and a potential ceasefire. Degraded Iranian air defenses and missile stocks limit counterstrikes, but proxy escalations via Hezbollah and Houthis heighten risks, shaping trader consensus on prolonged hostilities versus diplomatic off-ramps ahead of any ground operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
交易量
$10,506,893结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 12, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US-Israel conflict with Iran, escalating from joint strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure starting February 28, 2026, persists amid intense airstrikes and missile exchanges as of April 1. Recent US attacks on Tehran's nuclear facilities signal an "endgame" phase, while Iranian ballistic missiles and Houthi drone barrages targeted Israel and US assets in retaliation. Over 50,000 US troops, including fresh Marine deployments, bolster regional forces amid Pentagon invasion planning, though President Trump has indicated negotiations for de-escalation and a potential ceasefire. Degraded Iranian air defenses and missile stocks limit counterstrikes, but proxy escalations via Hezbollah and Houthis heighten risks, shaping trader consensus on prolonged hostilities versus diplomatic off-ramps ahead of any ground operations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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