Incumbent Democrat Norma Torres holds a commanding position in California's 35th Congressional District House race, driving trader consensus to a 91.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean per Cook Political Report ratings despite a rightward swing among Latino voters in 2024. Torres, who defeated Republican Mike Cargile in 2024 after topping him in the 2022 top-two primary, benefits from incumbency, strong fundraising, and endorsements like CHC BOLD PAC, while facing the same underfunded challenger in the June 2, 2026, nonpartisan primary likely to advance both to November's general election. GOP upset scenarios remain remote without a national Republican wave, Torres scandal, health issues, or Cargile securing major funding and turnout surges in this Inland Empire battleground.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
6%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$4,965 交易量
92%
共和党
$4,377 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Norma Torres holds a commanding position in California's 35th Congressional District House race, driving trader consensus to a 91.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean per Cook Political Report ratings despite a rightward swing among Latino voters in 2024. Torres, who defeated Republican Mike Cargile in 2024 after topping him in the 2022 top-two primary, benefits from incumbency, strong fundraising, and endorsements like CHC BOLD PAC, while facing the same underfunded challenger in the June 2, 2026, nonpartisan primary likely to advance both to November's general election. GOP upset scenarios remain remote without a national Republican wave, Torres scandal, health issues, or Cargile securing major funding and turnout surges in this Inland Empire battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$9,342结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Norma Torres holds a commanding position in California's 35th Congressional District House race, driving trader consensus to a 91.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean per Cook Political Report ratings despite a rightward swing among Latino voters in 2024. Torres, who defeated Republican Mike Cargile in 2024 after topping him in the 2022 top-two primary, benefits from incumbency, strong fundraising, and endorsements like CHC BOLD PAC, while facing the same underfunded challenger in the June 2, 2026, nonpartisan primary likely to advance both to November's general election. GOP upset scenarios remain remote without a national Republican wave, Torres scandal, health issues, or Cargile securing major funding and turnout surges in this Inland Empire battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$9,342结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Norma Torres holds a commanding position in California's 35th Congressional District House race, driving trader consensus to a 91.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory, reflecting the district's solid Democratic lean per Cook Political Report ratings despite a rightward swing among Latino voters in 2024. Torres, who defeated Republican Mike Cargile in 2024 after topping him in the 2022 top-two primary, benefits from incumbency, strong fundraising, and endorsements like CHC BOLD PAC, while facing the same underfunded challenger in the June 2, 2026, nonpartisan primary likely to advance both to November's general election. GOP upset scenarios remain remote without a national Republican wave, Torres scandal, health issues, or Cargile securing major funding and turnout surges in this Inland Empire battleground.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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