Trader consensus assigns a 94.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party in the NY-10 House race, driven by incumbent Dan Goldman's entrenched advantage in this deep-blue Manhattan-Brooklyn district with a D+37 partisan voting index. Goldman crushed his 2022 opponent by 41 points and holds a massive fundraising edge—over $5 million raised versus Republican Yenby Matos's under $100,000—with no recent polls, scandals, or campaign events eroding his lead amid early voting underway through November 3 ahead of Election Day. National GOP gains elsewhere have not penetrated NY-10's urban Democratic stronghold, where historical turnout patterns favor incumbents. Late-breaking scandals, legal challenges, or freakishly low Democratic turnout could theoretically challenge this dominance, but structural barriers remain formidable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
95%
共和党
$7,576 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 94.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party in the NY-10 House race, driven by incumbent Dan Goldman's entrenched advantage in this deep-blue Manhattan-Brooklyn district with a D+37 partisan voting index. Goldman crushed his 2022 opponent by 41 points and holds a massive fundraising edge—over $5 million raised versus Republican Yenby Matos's under $100,000—with no recent polls, scandals, or campaign events eroding his lead amid early voting underway through November 3 ahead of Election Day. National GOP gains elsewhere have not penetrated NY-10's urban Democratic stronghold, where historical turnout patterns favor incumbents. Late-breaking scandals, legal challenges, or freakishly low Democratic turnout could theoretically challenge this dominance, but structural barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
交易量
$7,576结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus assigns a 94.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party in the NY-10 House race, driven by incumbent Dan Goldman's entrenched advantage in this deep-blue Manhattan-Brooklyn district with a D+37 partisan voting index. Goldman crushed his 2022 opponent by 41 points and holds a massive fundraising edge—over $5 million raised versus Republican Yenby Matos's under $100,000—with no recent polls, scandals, or campaign events eroding his lead amid early voting underway through November 3 ahead of Election Day. National GOP gains elsewhere have not penetrated NY-10's urban Democratic stronghold, where historical turnout patterns favor incumbents. Late-breaking scandals, legal challenges, or freakishly low Democratic turnout could theoretically challenge this dominance, but structural barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$7,576结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 94.5% implied probability to the Democratic Party in the NY-10 House race, driven by incumbent Dan Goldman's entrenched advantage in this deep-blue Manhattan-Brooklyn district with a D+37 partisan voting index. Goldman crushed his 2022 opponent by 41 points and holds a massive fundraising edge—over $5 million raised versus Republican Yenby Matos's under $100,000—with no recent polls, scandals, or campaign events eroding his lead amid early voting underway through November 3 ahead of Election Day. National GOP gains elsewhere have not penetrated NY-10's urban Democratic stronghold, where historical turnout patterns favor incumbents. Late-breaking scandals, legal challenges, or freakishly low Democratic turnout could theoretically challenge this dominance, but structural barriers remain formidable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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